— SERVICES · REGULATORY & CAPITAL MODELLING
THE MODELS YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO GET WRONG.
Some models inform a decision. Others determine whether you hold a licence, clear an audit, or close a deal. These are the models a regulator will probe, an auditor will test, and a board will have to sign. We build them to the standard — and to last.
— THE PROBLEM
SOME MODELS YOU CHOOSE TO BUILD. THESE YOU HAVE TO.
Regulatory and capital models are not optional. A licence, an audit opinion, a capital requirement, or a bankable deal depends on them — and each must satisfy a standard that does not bend: IFRS 17, IFRS 9, the SAM solvency framework, a lender’s credit committee. The margin for error is narrow, the scrutiny is real, and the cost of getting it wrong is measured in capital, licences, and deals rather than in a missed forecast.
Yet these models are often built under deadline, by teams already stretched, and the result has to do two things at once that pull against each other: satisfy the regulator, and still tell the business something true. Most builds manage the first. The hard part is doing both.
— WHAT WE DO
BUILT TO THE STANDARD. BUILT TO BE UNDERSTOOD.
We build the regulatory and capital models institutions are compelled to get right — across banking, insurance, and project finance — to a standard that satisfies the regulator and still tells the board something true.
IFRS 17 Reserving & Measurement
The insurance-contract models behind your reserves and your reported result: measurement models, the contractual service margin, the risk adjustment, and the disclosure machinery beneath them. Built to the standard, documented so they can be audited and understood, and structured to stay usable for actual decisions — not just for the return.
Credit & Reserving Models
The credit-risk, scorecard, and reserving models underpinning lending, pricing, and provisioning. Built on sound methodology, documented to survive scrutiny, and structured so the path from input to answer is one a credit committee or a regulator can follow.
IFRS 9 Expected Credit Loss
The provisioning engines that drive your impairment number and your capital: probability of default, loss given default, exposure at default, staging, and forward-looking macroeconomic inputs. Built so the logic can be traced, the assumptions are visible, and the result can be defended to an auditor and a board that will both challenge it.
Project-Finance & Infrastructure Models
The lender-grade financial models that make a deal bankable: structured to withstand a bank credit committee, to give sponsors and funders an honest view of where a project’s returns and risks truly sit, and to hold up through the due diligence that decides whether capital moves or stalls.
SAM & Economic Capital
Solvency and capital models under the Solvency Assessment and Management framework: the Solvency Capital Requirement and Minimum Capital Requirement, under the standard formula or a full or partial internal model, with the economic-capital and ORSA work alongside them. Built to the prudential standard while keeping the capital story legible to the people who must own it.
– HOW WE WORK
COMPLIANCE IS THE FLOOR. UNDERSTANDING IS THE WORK.
Passing the audit is the minimum, not the achievement. Our method is built so the model satisfies the regulator and tells the institution something it can act on — and so you still understand it long after we have left.
01
Build to the standard, deliberately
We build to the requirements of the relevant standard — IFRS 17, IFRS 9, SAM, the prudential framework — with the methodology chosen and justified, not inherited. Compliance is designed in from the start, not retrofitted before a deadline.
02
Separate, document, expose
Every model separates inputs, calculations, and outputs, documents its assumptions and methodology, and exposes its levers. This is what makes a model auditable, what makes it survive due diligence, and what makes it explainable to a board or a regulator who asks how a number was reached.
03
Validate against challenge
We build anticipating the questions — from the auditor, the Prudential Authority, the credit committee, the investment committee. A model is only finished when it can answer them.
04
Make it a strategic asset, not just a return
A regulatory model that tells the board nothing has failed at the only thing that matters beyond compliance. We structure the work so the same model that satisfies the regulator also surfaces the assumptions and levers the business can actually use.
05
Hand it over so it stays understood
We build with documentation and capability transfer so your team can own, run, and defend the model after we leave — so it does not quietly become the next black box.
— WHO THIS IS FOR
FOR THE PEOPLE WHO SIGN THE RETURN.
This work is for chief actuaries and heads of actuarial who own the reserving and solvency numbers; for CROs and heads of credit risk responsible for ECL and capital models; for CFOs who sign the financial statements those models feed; for boards and audit committees who must attest to numbers they need to understand; and for project sponsors and lenders who need a financial model that will survive a credit committee.
It spans banking, insurance, mining and resources, and project finance and infrastructure — the sectors where the model is not optional, the standard is not negotiable, and the cost of getting it wrong is measured in capital, licences, and deals.
— THE ALETHEIA DIFFERENCE
WE BUILD THE MODEL YOU CAN DEFEND — NOT JUST THE ONE THAT PASSES.
Plenty of firms can build a model that clears the audit. The harder, rarer thing is a model that clears the audit and the institution still understands a year later — one a board can sign with confidence, a regulator can probe without surprises, and a successor team can run without fear.
Our work is grounded in actuarial science, with cross-sector depth across insurance, banking, mining, and audit. We bring the discipline of the audit chair and the rigour of the actuarial exam to every build, because regulatory modelling is the one place where “it works” is not enough — it has to be right, and it has to be shown to be right. That is the standard the regulator now expects. It is also, simply, the standard.
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COULD YOU EXPLAIN YOUR MOST IMPORTANT MODEL TO THE REGULATOR TOMORROW?
A 30-minute discovery call. No obligation. A scoped proposal within 48 hours.
ALETHEIA PARTNERS
Analytics. Modelling. Truth.
A specialist analytics and modelling consultancy, grounded in actuarial science. Based in Johannesburg, working with corporates, project sponsors and investors across Africa.
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