— ROOTED IN SOUTH AFRICA · BUILT FOR AFRICA
ANALYTICS. MODELLING. CLARITY.
Actuarial-grade analytics, modelling and audit for South African corporates, sponsors and investors — built to work across African markets. Rigour in the work, not the slides.
WORK DELIVERED ACROSS
SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
LIBERTY
IMPALA
ABSA
STANDARD BANK
NUTUN
ALEX FORBES
SERITI
INVESTEC
RSA GOV
— OUR NAME
ALETHEIA
Ancient Greek for the act of disclosure — the uncovering of what is hidden.
Great analytics and modelling does precisely this. It exposes the assumptions. It reveals the levers. It surfaces the risks. It uncovers the opportunities. It does not flatter; it illuminates. And what it illuminates, you can act on. We named the firm after this idea, because it is the only standard we will be measured by.
— SERVICES
BUILT TO SURVIVE THE BOARDROOM, THE AUDITOR, AND THE REGULATOR.
DECISION ANALYTICS & FORECASTING
Looking forward, not just closing the books: pricing and profitability analytics, scenario and stress testing, demand and revenue forecasting, and decision dashboards — rigour applied to the questions that move the business.
REPORTING & CAPITAL READINESS
Turning models into numbers that clear the room: IFRS disclosures, capital and solvency reporting, investment-committee and lender packs, and the financial case behind a fundraise, transaction or board decision.
REGULATORY & CAPITAL MODELLING
The models institutions are compelled to get right: IFRS 17 and IFRS 9 / ECL engines, SAM and economic capital, credit and reserving models, and project-finance models that make a deal bankable. Built to the standard, built to last.
CAPABILITY & ASSURANCE TRANSFER
Master the standard, decode the regulator, build it yourself. We give your team command of the analytics and modelling their work requires — and the skill to challenge it, not just maintain it.
INDEPENDENT MODEL VALIDATION
Independent review and validation of the models your board, auditor or regulator relies on — logic, assumptions, governance, documentation. The second opinion that satisfies the Prudential Authority and survives due diligence.
NOT SURE WHERE YOU SIT?
A 30-minute discovery call, no charge. We’ll tell you honestly which service you need — or who else might help.
— SECTORS
WHERE THE MODEL HAS TO BE RIGHT.
Five sectors where regulation, capital or thin margins make the numbers consequential — and where we work at depth, not by the brochure.
INSURANCE
IFRS 17 · SAM · RESERVING
IFRS 17 has rewritten how insurers measure profit, and SAM keeps capital under the regulator’s eye. The reserving, CSM and capital models now decide reported results.
MINING & RESOURCES
VOLATILITY · VALUATION · CLOSURE
Commodity swings, long-dated capital and rehabilitation liabilities make life-of-mine valuation, scenario testing and closure provisioning unforgiving work.
BANKING
IFRS 9 / ECL · BASEL · CREDIT
Expected-credit-loss and Basel capital models sit under direct Prudential Authority scrutiny. Provisions and capital ratios live or die on their assumptions.
PROJECT FINANCE & INFRASTRUCTURE
BANKABILITY · FINANCIAL CLOSE
Africa’s funding gap turns on bankability. The model is what moves a project from proposal to financial close — and what lenders interrogate first.
RETAIL
MARGINS · CREDIT · DEMAND
Thin margins and stretched consumers reward precision: pricing and promotion analytics, demand forecasting, customer value and store-card credit risk.
YOUR SECTOR HERE?
If the numbers carry real consequence, the discipline travels. Tell us the problem.
— WHY CLIENTS CHOOSE US
WORK THAT SURVIVES SCRUTINY.
01
PROOF, NOT PROMISES
The best predictor of a good engagement is who trusted you before it. Work delivered across mining, banking, insurance and audit — for and alongside names like Impala Platinum, Investec, Liberty and ABSA.
02
SURVIVES THE BOARDROOM
The test of a number is whether it survives the room it’s taken into. Built on actuarial discipline and an audit-trained eye, every assumption stands up to a committee, an auditor or the regulator.
03
BUILT FOR THE DECISION
A model that is technically perfect but never used has failed. Every engagement is scoped around the decision it must serve — the raise, the deal, the pricing call — and we stay until it’s made, not until the file is sent. Truth only counts if you can act on it.
– INSIGHTS
NOTES FROM THE MODEL.
MODEL RISK & AI · 7 MIN READ
IF YOU CAN’T EXPLAIN IT, YOU CAN’T DEFEND IT.
As South Africa’s regulators turn to explainability, a model you can’t open is a model you can’t defend — to a board, an auditor, or a customer owed a reason.
REGULATORY MODELLING · 5 MIN READ
COMPLIANT, BUT BLIND.
IFRS 17 and IFRS 9 were built to a deadline and passed audit. Whether anyone can still read them — or learn anything from them — is another question.
VALUATION · 6 MIN READ
THE NUMBER BENEATH THE NUMBER.
In a long-dated valuation, one buried assumption can swing the answer by double digits — and decide whether a mine or a mega-project ever gets built.
— FOUNDING PRINCIPLE
All value rests on truth. A business creates value by uncovering what is true and having the discipline to follow it.
If that’s the standard you want held to your numbers, a 30-minute discovery call costs nothing — and we’ll tell you honestly whether we can help.
ALETHEIA PARTNERS
Analytics. Modelling. Truth.
A specialist analytics and modelling consultancy, grounded in actuarial science. Based in Johannesburg, working with corporates, project sponsors and investors across Africa.
© 2026 Aletheia Partners (Pty) Ltd · All Rights Reserved
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